BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.005.6
20262.50.005.4
20272.40.005.3
20282.20.005.1
20292.10.005.0

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Field Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherryville3519681966
Mooresville2220011966
Jackson2120171995
Hulls Xroads2020231997
Sturgills1820242001
Ostwalt1620242012
Siloam1320242005
Madison1219851966
Sheffield1120241991
Pinetops1020241997
Monticello1020241990
Washington1020242001
Chowan River1020062002
Wilgrove920241995
Speed820241968
Climax820241966
Sawmill820241990
Biscoe820171990
Dortches820241990
Rheasville820172005
Mcginnis Crossroad820222001
Marshall720241990
Kinston620241966
Cullowhee620241974
Fairview620241991

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.