BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.005.5
20272.40.005.4
20282.30.005.2
20292.10.005.1
20302.00.004.9

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Field Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherryville3519681966
Mooresville2220011966
Sturgills2220252001
Jackson2120171995
Hulls Xroads2020231997
Ostwalt1420252012
Madison1219851966
Todd1220251995
Dortches1120251990
Speed1020251968
Eden1020251987
Pinetops1020241997
Flay1020251990
Washington1020252001
Chowan River1020062002
Sheffield920251991
Monticello920251990
Hendersonvil820251996
Mount Airy820252000
Rheasville820172005
Mcginnis Crossroad820222001
Mooresville 2720252006
Gupton720252001
Kinston620241966
Biscoe620251990

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.