BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.001.4
20260.370.001.4
20270.350.001.4
20280.330.001.4
20290.300.001.4

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee1320111970
Lake Mary1019871987
Olive Branch920011966
Tupelo920221966
Trace Lee920182013
Walthall519871970
Trace South520102007
Cockrum420241966
Corinth420241972
Forest319721972
Mt Carmel320041974
Isola220211968
Aberdeen220241970
Waynesboro219661966
Holly Springs220212013
Sandy Creek220001993
Beverly120091987
Commerce119841966
Tchula119751975
Benton120191972
Utica120061966
Lucien120041974
Fayette120001970
Duck Hill119911970
Lake119871966

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.