BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Missouri has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026138.918
2027138.718
2028138.617
2029138.517
2030138.417

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayden3020251975
Peace Valley2920251975
Cole Camp2919901971
Emden2820242017
Graydon2720251967
Centertown2720251973
New Hampton2720252014
Bland2620251995
Osage Beach2520251997
Richland2520252014
Lucerne2320252016
Frankford2220251985
Sweden2120251968
Rockingham1920251969
Trenton1920251967
Gerald1920252013
Union1919991990
Filley1820251975
Danville1820251967
Mcfall1820251994
Gildehouse1819891978
Queen City1820222017
Rueter 21720252023
Sticklervill1620251970
Whitewater1620251996

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.