BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Missouri has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.118
2026139.018
2027138.918
2028138.818
2029138.617

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne3620212016
Peace Valley3120241975
Osage Beach3120241997
Cole Camp2919901971
Emden2820242017
Richland2820212014
Graydon2520241967
Huntsville2520241967
West Plains2520242014
Bland2220241995
Sticklervill2120241970
Eugene2120242013
Sweden2020241968
Trenton2020241967
Filley1920241975
Mcfall1920241994
New Hampton1920242014
Lincoln1920242013
Union1919991990
Gildehouse1819891978
Queen City1820222017
Handley1620231967
Hayden1620241975
Gerald1620242013
Rueter 21620242023

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.