BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in New York has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in New York: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.5
20261.00.003.4
20270.910.003.3
20280.790.003.2
20290.680.003.1

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Field Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville2720241968
Naples2320241966
West Seneca2020041966
Macdougall1720241969
Oxford1619761967
Harris Hill1520092005
Durham1419761966
Mt Morris1420241967
N Victory1219721967
Branchport1120241967
Castile1120241967
Warwick1019741968
Orleans920241967
Whitney Pt820181966
Dryden820241966
Rushville820241971
Argyle820241968
Rhinebeck720241966
Cayuga720241969
Salem720241967
Westbrookvle620191966
Austerlitz620241966
Phillips Cr620241967
Cattaraugus620191967
Sheridan620241966

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.