BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in New York has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.8
20271.20.003.7
20281.10.003.6
20290.960.003.5
20300.860.003.4

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Field Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville2620251968
Macdougall2120251969
West Seneca2020041966
Naples1720251966
Oxford1619761967
Rhinebeck1420251966
Durham1419761966
N Victory1219721967
Branchport1120241967
Warwick1019741968
Cayuga1020251969
Dryden1020251966
Phillips Cr1020251967
Mt Morris1020251967
Whitney Pt820181966
Orleans820251967
Castile820251967
Argyle820241968
Westbrookvle620191966
Cattaraugus620191967
Sheridan620251966
Harris Hill620252005
Huntington519811975
Ghent520251966
Cooperstown519771970

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.