BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.00.0016
20274.60.0015
20284.20.0015
20293.80.0014
20303.40.0014

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays Fork4220191999
Drakesboro3819931966
Iron Bridge2319981966
Johnsonville2220211966
Buena Vista2220171966
Levee2119821966
Riverqueen1920252007
Merrimac1920241967
Pleasurevill1920251979
Keysburg1820251968
Porter1820251966
Paintsville1819951979
Hegira1720241988
Gesling1719731967
Kehoe1719921966
Morganfield1720252022
Glencoe1620221966
Sulphur Lick1520241966
Hudson1520251966
Cedar Grove1420251966
Million1419861966
Kings Mtn1420251966
Eastview1420251967
Joy1420231966
Apex1420252005

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.