BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0015
20264.60.0015
20274.20.0015
20283.70.0014
20293.30.0014

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays Fork4220191999
Drakesboro3819931966
Iron Bridge2319981966
Johnsonville2220211966
Buena Vista2220171966
Levee2119821966
Merrimac1920241967
Eastview1820241967
Paintsville1819951979
Hegira1720241988
Gesling1719731967
Kehoe1719921966
Keysburg1620241968
Glencoe1620221966
Sulphur Lick1520241966
Porter1520241966
Million1419861966
Joy1420231966
Kings Mtn1320241966
Morganfield1320242022
Pleasurevill1320241979
Lovelacevile1220241967
Riverqueen1220242007
Gatewood1220191966
Daniel Boone1219881966

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.