BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Arkansas has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has collapsed in Arkansas: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.004.1
20271.60.004.0
20281.50.003.9
20291.40.003.8
20301.30.003.7

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell2320182010
Yellville1720252010
Russell1120212010
Harrisburg820121967
Fulton820251967
Compton820221967
Rudy720252011
Crows619911967
Ravenden Springs620152010
Havana620192010
Coal Hill420231967
Marshall420212011
Lurton320231967
Zion320251967
Centerton320252010
Hickory Ridge320212021
Four Lakes320011994
Old Milo220021968
Locust Bayou220071967
South Bend219821973
Augusta220011967
Rupert220241967
Maynard220251967
Stephens220162014
Princeton220142000

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.