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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Virginia is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.04–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Virginia is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.04–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.264.3
20272.20.204.3
20282.20.154.2
20292.10.104.2
20302.10.044.1

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart1220241996
Blacksburg1120251988
Churchville1020251966
Cornland1020141975
Sharps920251967
Taylorstown 2920252012
Star Tannery820251977
Gloucester820251992
Port Royal620251977
Ringgold620251976
Moran620251996
Gladys620251994
Brandy Station620252017
Fincastle520251966
Big Island520251968
Concord520241967
Church Road520251966
Marion519821976
Ivanhoe519681966
Irisburg520251976
Newville520241988
Dryden520251991
Hebron 2520252023
Brandon520251993
Edinburg420251968

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.