BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.224.3
20262.20.174.2
20272.10.114.1
20282.10.064.1
20292.00.004.0

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart1220241996
Cornland1020141975
Big Island920241968
Churchville820241966
Irisburg720241976
Carters Brdg 2720242015
Star Tannery620241977
Blacksburg620241988
Natural Brid520241974
Concord520241967
Quinby520241966
Marion519821976
Ivanhoe519681966
Moran520241996
Brandy Station520242017
Newville520241988
Brandon520241993
Stanley420241966
Tryme420221975
Carters Brdg420141966
Mannboro420231967
Hall420231967
White Stone420241968
Sharps420241967
Clinchport419781967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.