BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Rhode Island has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has collapsed in Rhode Island: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.33 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.33 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.002.0
20240.000.002.0
20250.000.002.0
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wallum Lake219921973
Block Island120101988
Quonset Pt120211966
Sachuest Pt119891967
Shannock120221973
Casimir Pulaski Sf120182018

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.