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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.06–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.06–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.202.9
20261.50.172.9
20271.50.132.8
20281.40.092.8
20291.40.062.8

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wainwright1020131992
Ft Sill East1019941994
Wakita620161967
Hunter620241992
Colony519951995
Wichita Mtns519941994
Skiatook520191982
Grimes420231967
Collinsville420191967
Hollis420241993
Pocola420161992
Ft Sill West419941994
Phroso320241992
Phillips320081969
Welch320241967
Barnsdall319771967
Hardesty320041984
Goodwater320182005
Big Cedar220131967
Blanco220001970
Mcalester219911967
Mill Creek220161967
Beggs220221967
Eagle City220081968
Peoria220231967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.