BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.66–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.66–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.782.8
20261.80.752.8
20271.80.722.8
20281.70.692.8
20291.70.662.7

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrisburg920091967
Centerton920242010
Saffell720191967
Yellville720102010
Poyen620071967
Blakely619991968
Fulton620241967
Havana620192010
Locust Bayou520231967
Rupert520241967
Nance520231993
Stark420241967
Coal Hill420231967
Springhill420222010
Crows319911967
Augusta320011967
Farwell320182010
Russell320212010
Ulm320191986
Old Milo220241967
Eudora220241967
Stamps220241967
Hope220241967
Ashdown220151967
West Tyler219841967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.