BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.86.4
20264.11.86.3
20274.01.86.3
20284.01.76.2
20293.91.76.2

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diberville1819871979
Leaf River1720132008
Mt Carmel1620161974
Olive Branch1420011966
Forest1320241972
Cybur1320191966
Neely1220121974
Scooba 21119871983
Monticello1020172007
De Soto1020192008
Star1020242016
Poplarville919781972
Cockrum820241966
Lake820241966
Corinth820241972
Fontainbleau819781966
Necaise820221982
Scooba719821967
Vicksburg Np720212016
Latimer720191988
Olive Branch 2720222016
Beverly620101966
Isola620221969
Columbia620181969
Amite River620132008

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.