BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Florida has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Florida is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Florida is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.05.4
20263.72.05.4
20273.72.05.4
20283.72.05.4
20293.72.05.4

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hope1820112009
Redlands1820241994
Lovedale1720111987
Callahan1620241987
Port St Joe1420111967
Seminole Hills 21320222002
Miller Xrds1220191987
Mossy Head1120111966
Seminole Hls1120001967
Sunniland Gr1020211968
Dowling Park1020231987
Telogia919851968
Hildreth 2820242010
Ocala820241989
Broad Branch720241967
Mabel720111966
Alturas719861971
Oak Grove 2720242017
Laurel Hill720242010
Blountstown620241966
Blackwater620241987
Hildreth620091987
Osceola620241991
Corbett620221987
Dale Mabry519871966

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.