BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Texas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Texas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Texas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.19
20270.070.000.19
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18
20300.070.000.18

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey Lake820021970
Smyrna720101995
Diboll620251970
Easton620131996
Crossroads520251967
Moon Lake420102006
Miller Grove320071967
Agua Nueva219761976
Katy219851971
Easton 2220252015
Bon Wier220191999
Post220122012
Miami220241980
Smyrna 2220232011
Vanderbilt119761972
Schroeder119721972
Blue Ridge120101992
Cayuga120232008
Winnie120241986
Stowell119931977
Danbury119711971
Lockhart119851985
Moon Lake 2120132013
Chandler 2120242010
Town Bluff120191976

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.