BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in West Virginia has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.19–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.19–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.284.7
20262.50.264.7
20272.50.244.7
20282.40.214.7
20292.40.194.6

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hix1020241970
Bebee920241972
Ruthbelle820241975
Bismark820231976
Smoot720241980
Richwood720241981
Yellow Spg720231972
Lost River720231996
Stollings520211996
Welch520231992
Pt Pleasant520231974
Spencer520231986
Shanghai520221995
Ghent420241978
Nicut420241986
Denmar420241980
Green Bank420241977
Slate420241980
Moundsville420241972
Monongah420191966
Pedro320241979
Hubbardstown320231967
Yawkey320241967
Canaan320231974
Sugar Grove320241966

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.