BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in West Virginia has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.20–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.20–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.294.7
20272.50.274.7
20282.40.244.6
20292.40.224.6
20302.40.204.6

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hubbardstown920251967
Moundsville920251972
Pt Pleasant720251974
Bebee720251972
Yellow Spg720231972
Valley Head620251966
Smoot520251980
Stollings520211996
Ghent520251978
Welch520231992
Paradise520251966
Denmar520251980
Lost River520251996
Spencer420241986
Nicut420251986
Green Bank420241977
Sugar Grove420251966
Dailey420251973
Monongah420191966
Martinsburg420251966
Ruthbelle420251975
Pedro320251979
Yawkey320241967
Ringgold320252025
Bismark320251976

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.