BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Nebraska has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 2.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 2.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.82.98.7
20275.82.98.7
20285.72.88.6
20295.62.78.5
20305.52.68.4

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surprise4220251967
Liberty1920031967
Murdock1920252018
Belvidere1820251967
Liberty 21620072004
Sumner1520251967
Eagle Creek1320251967
Hampton1320252018
Paxton1220161967
Brady1220251980
Johnson1120251967
Bartley1120251967
Berwyn 21120252014
Bartlett1019761967
Thurston1020251967
Tilden1020252019
Dalton920251968
Hendley920252018
Liberty 3920252009
Gretna 2820252019
Winside 2820222005
Winside720031967
Ponca720252018
Boelus720222018
Gretna620181967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.