BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Nebraska has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.93.08.9
20265.92.98.8
20275.82.98.7
20285.72.88.6
20295.62.78.6

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hampton3120242018
Surprise2520241967
Belvidere2320241967
Liberty1920031967
Liberty 21620072004
Bartley1520241967
Brady1520241980
Sumner1420241967
Liberty 31420242009
Kenesaw1320241967
Paxton1220161967
Murdock1120242018
Bartlett1019761967
Humboldt1020242018
Petersburg820231969
Hay Springs820242018
Winside 2820222005
Kearney720241968
Richland720241968
Winside720031967
Sargent720242021
Boelus720222018
Gretna620181967
Tilden620242019
Hendley620242018

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.