BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Alabama has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 4.4–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 4.4–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.74.46.9
20265.64.46.9
20275.64.46.9
20285.64.46.9
20295.64.46.9

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stevenson3620241996
Liberty City2020111979
Rock Chapel1620241995
Drummond1520242001
Elamville1420241984
Talladega1420241996
Millerville1320241966
Dearmanville1319831966
Brooksville1320231984
St. Elmo1320211996
Valhermoso Spgs1220101966
Childersburg1219991985
Liberty City 21220242017
Greensport1120241966
Pine Grove1020241966
Valhermoso Spg 21020142014
Lakeview1020241999
Choccolocco1020241984
Alabama Pt 21020192004
Blocton920241969
Vina920231996
Eufaula920241996
Warrior Std820241966
Grangeburg820241966
Whitehouse820241980

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.