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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in North Carolina has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.16.7
20264.93.16.7
20274.93.06.7
20284.83.06.6
20294.83.06.6

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague3120241990
Hertford1620241997
California1420131972
Jamesville1420241983
Reelsboro1220191998
Siloam1220242005
Flay1120241990
Lake Surf1120241998
Oakboro1020241969
California 21020242014
Ostwalt1020242012
Cypress Lakes1020242004
Cayton1020242010
Merrimon920231969
Climax920241966
Copeland920241968
Monticello920241990
Speed820241966
Rose820241968
Arcola820241971
Grandy819751971
Cokesbury820241996
Sheffield820241991
Hendersonvil820241996
Dortches820241990

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.