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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in North Carolina has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.16.7
20274.93.16.7
20284.93.16.7
20294.93.16.7
20304.93.06.7

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague2420251990
Myrtle Grove2220251966
Cypress Lakes1920252004
Hertford1620241997
Sheffield1520251991
Oakboro1420251969
California1420131972
Copeland1320251968
Flay1320251990
Reelsboro1220191998
Climax1120251966
Ostwalt1120252012
Lake Surf1020251998
Cayton1020242010
Merrimon920231969
California 2920252014
Hamlet920251995
Dortches920251990
Grandy819751971
Bullock820251997
Gupton820252001
Mcginnis Crossroad820222001
Belgrade820192002
Ernul820092001
Kinston720241966

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.