BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Kentucky has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.9–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.9–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.06.7
20274.83.06.6
20284.83.06.6
20294.83.06.6
20304.72.96.5

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil2119971996
Boxville1719831967
East Union920251968
Lebanon Junction920252000
Riverqueen820252007
Drakesboro820031966
Kehoe819921968
Sulphur Lick720241966
Merrimac720241967
Plum720251966
Gesling719731967
Pleasurevill720251979
Pine Ridge619781966
Joy620231966
Goshen619991966
Carter620251976
Keysburg520251968
Sunnybrook520221968
Mckee520251967
Daniel Boone519881966
Porter520241966
Apex520252006
Paintsville519951979
Campton520211979
Shiloh420251967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.