BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Louisiana has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.31.84.8
20273.31.94.8
20283.31.94.8
20293.31.94.8
20303.31.94.8

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pearl River1420251989
Greensburg1120221988
Bickham1020251972
Fishville 21020252018
Norwood920252004
Mayflower820251967
Derry819891967
Chatham819751967
Delhi820212013
Rayville 2820252009
Lacombe719831967
Roseland720251967
Brousville720251998
Baton Rouge720251995
Gibson620192013
Slidell619881985
Vinton 2620252011
Franklinton620252008
Junior519881988
Keystone520131967
Plettenberg520221968
Fishville520171967
Rayville520081967
Floyd520211988
Gonzales520191998

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.