BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Louisiana has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Louisiana is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Louisiana is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.84.8
20263.31.84.8
20273.31.84.8
20283.31.94.8
20293.31.94.8

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pearl River1320241989
Greensburg1120221988
Baton Rouge1120241995
Rayville 2920242009
Franklinton920242008
Derry819891967
Chatham819751967
Delhi820212013
Lacombe719831967
Roseland620241967
Gibson620192013
Brousville620241998
Frogmore620241998
Slidell619881985
Fishville 2620242018
Haughton620241991
River Road620241987
Junior519881988
Keystone520131967
Plettenberg520221968
Mayflower520241967
Fishville520171967
Rayville520081967
Clay520241968
Floyd520211988

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.