BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in New York has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in New York: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in New York is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in New York is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.001.7
20270.200.001.7
20280.160.001.7
20290.120.001.6
20300.080.001.6

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Durham1019741966
Fowler1019681966
Waddington819981981
Branchport720241967
Swain 2620242011
Hauppauge520081966
Oxford519761967
Nashville520181967
Watertown520121967
Kasoag520071966
Ogdensburg520251980
Dexter Lake519751969
Philadelphia520251980
Manorville420061966
Dryden420251966
Mt Morris420251967
Castile420251969
E Youngstown420251966
Westbrookvle320181967
Vestal Ctr320191967
Swain320071967
East Java320251967
Sheridan320251966
Byron320251967
Churchville320251968

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.