BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in New York has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has fallen sharply in New York: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in New York is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in New York is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.001.7
20260.150.001.6
20270.110.001.6
20280.070.001.5
20290.020.001.5

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Durham1019741966
Fowler1019681966
Waddington819981981
Branchport720241967
Swain 2620242011
Hauppauge520081966
Oxford519761967
Mt Morris520241967
Nashville520181967
E Youngstown520231966
Watertown520121967
Kasoag520071966
Dexter Lake519751969
Manorville420061966
Westbrookvle320181967
Ghent320221966
Vestal Ctr320191967
Phillips Cr320241967
Swain320071967
Castile320241969
Churchville320241968
Philadelphia320241980
Jones Beach220051967
Warwick219741968
Mt Hope219911967

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.