BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Ohio has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.23.0
20272.11.22.9
20282.11.22.9
20292.01.22.9
20302.01.22.9

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome1120251966
Harveysburg1019961966
Coal Run919921966
Vickery920251996
Coshocton819911990
Omega620241966
Scioto Furn620211992
Harveysburg 2620251997
Keene620231992
Adamsville519891971
Cumberland520171966
Ash Ridge520211992
Greasy Ridge519911966
Wilgus520191992
Baxter Ridge420251998
Dresden420251966
Winterset419831967
Wilmington419961966
Tecumseh419821966
Pomeroy420221966
Petersburg420101998
Enon420251985
Bloomville320251992
Pittsfield320241992
Peru319781966

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.