BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Ohio has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Thrasher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.33.0
20262.11.23.0
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.22.9
20292.01.22.9

Brown Thrasher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg1019961966
Coal Run919921966
Bloomville820241992
Coshocton819911990
Fulton720241966
Rome720241966
Omega620241966
Scioto Furn620211992
Keene620231992
Baxter Ridge520231998
Adamsville519891971
Ray520241992
Cumberland520171966
Ash Ridge520211992
Greasy Ridge519911966
Vickery520241996
South Olive520171993
Wilgus520191992
Lattasburg420241966
Winterset419831967
Wilmington419961966
Tecumseh419821966
New Marshfld420241966
Pomeroy420221966
Petersburg420101998

Brown Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.