BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Virginia has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 1.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 1.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.11.810
20266.01.710
20275.91.610
20285.81.510
20295.81.410

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion8219821976
Newbern6719821968
Blacksburg4820241988
Dryden4820241991
Hebron4520221981
Hebron 24020242023
Saltville3420241969
Clinchport3219781967
Great Falls3119781966
Jerome2720231971
Isom2720241969
Putnam2720211969
Churchville2420241966
Edinburg2420241968
Rural Retrt2320241982
Nat Tunnel2220241981
Stickleyvill1919901975
Iron Mountain 31920232014
Taylorstown1720101967
Taylorstown 21720242012
Stanley1620241966
Fincastle1420241966
Covington1320241966
W Augusta1220241967
Backbay1219741966

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.