BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Virginia has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.31.911
20276.21.811
20286.11.711
20296.01.610
20306.01.510

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion8219821976
Newbern6719821968
Blacksburg5920251988
Hebron4520221981
Putnam4220251969
Hebron 24220252023
Dryden4220251991
Churchville3620251966
Nat Tunnel3320251981
Clinchport3219781967
Great Falls3119781966
Isom2720241969
Saltville2720251969
Rural Retrt2720251982
Edinburg2220251968
Sharps2020251967
Stickleyvill1919901975
Iron Mountain 31920232014
Taylorstown1720101967
Jerome1720251971
Taylorstown 21720252012
Pine Mtn.1620251996
Stanley1420251966
Fincastle1420251966
Backbay1219741966

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.