BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+251%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171322
2027181322
2028181322
2029181423
2030181423

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Song Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns5120251980
Kempton4020171967
Horsehead Lk3820251980
Loraine3420191982
Forman3320251968
Nash2920171980
Emerado2620251973
Lakota2620091968
Cooperstown2520251969
Regan2220251968
Buchanan2120251967
Sheyenne Lk2120251980
Edgeley1820251980
Rolla1820241969
Powers Lake1720251980
Danzig 21720252019
Lake George1320231967
Wimbledon1320251990
Wild Rose1320251982
Dickinson1220251985
Stanley1220251967
Denbigh1120251968
Braddock1120231989
Abercrombie 21120182013
Carpio920231967

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.