BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+256%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171322
2026181322
2027181322
2028181423
2029181423

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Song Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns6220241980
Kempton4020171967
Emerado3720241973
Loraine3420191982
Nash2920171980
Lakota2620091968
Buchanan2420241967
Cooperstown2220241969
Sheyenne Lk2120241980
Forman2020241968
Horsehead Lk2020241980
Edgeley1920241980
Montpelier1920241992
Danzig 21920242019
Rolla1820241969
Niles1420241989
Abercrombie 21120182013
Carpio920231967
Powers Lake820241980
Douglas Crk820241982
Braddock820221989
Wimbledon720241990
Dickinson720241985
Bowesmont620141968
Denbigh620241968

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.