BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Tennessee has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.33.813
20268.33.813
20278.33.813
20288.33.813
20298.33.813

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corryton Rd5420191966
Climer5120041967
Lovell4920191966
Jefferson Cty3920111966
Walland3819891966
Fish Springs3220231966
Oliver Spgs2820221966
Glen2020241966
Tullahoma1720151978
Smokey Jct1720221966
Jones Gap1520191982
Red Bank1519781966
Soddy1519811967
Cornpone1220241990
Jasper1220241967
Union Hill1120241982
Mt Olive1020241966
Bradyville820211992
Elk Valley820221970
Allens Brdge720231966
Signal Mtn520241979
Sweetlips519971985
Peytonsville520242007
Tellico420241995
Indian Mound 2420042004

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.