BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in New York has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 22–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 22–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025302338
2026302338
2027302237
2028302237
2029302237

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Song Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans13520241967
Churchville9320241968
Macdougall9020241969
Nashville8420181967
Cattaraugus7920191967
Manorville7720241966
Naples7120241966
North Easton6620241967
Cayuga6520241969
Castile6520241967
Argyle6420241968
Sheridan6320241966
S Berne 26320242014
Oriskany Fls5920241967
Dryden5920241966
Rushville5920241968
Branchport5620241967
Ogdensburg5620241979
Watertown5420121967
Alder Creek5420041968
Cicero Ctr5320241966
Mt Morris5220241967
E Youngstown5120231966
Jones Beach4820131966
Pulaski4720241967

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.