BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in New York has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 22–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 22–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312339
2027312339
2028312339
2029302239
2030302238

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Song Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans11420251967
Macdougall10820251969
Nashville8420181967
Churchville8320251968
Cattaraugus7920191967
Manorville7720241966
North Easton7220251967
Sheridan7120251966
Naples7020251966
Argyle6420241968
E Youngstown6320251966
Castile6120251967
East Java6020251967
Oriskany Fls5820251967
Cayuga5620251969
Dryden5620251966
Branchport5620241967
S Berne 25620252014
Watertown5420121967
Alder Creek5420041968
Phillips Cr5020251967
Cicero Ctr5020251966
Byron4920251967
Jones Beach4820131966
Meridale4820251967

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.