BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Minnesota has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191225
2028181225
2029181224

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater6120001994
Bagley5020061995
Knapp4520241967
Caledonia 23720242013
Oklee3620211969
Brook Park3520241998
Chatfield 23420242003
Floodwood3220241967
Lake Bronson3220111978
Chatfield3119991967
Sherburne Nr3120241990
Debs3020241969
Mahtowa3020231993
Brainerd3020241993
Ashby3020211997
Greenbush3020241993
Wigwam Bay2920231967
Caledonia2820121993
New London2820241994
Nett Lake2820242013
Le Center2720231993
Beltrami2620241967
Crane Lake2620241969
Little Fork2620241969
Huntley2520241967

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.