BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181224
2027181224
2028181224
2029181224
2030181224

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater6120001994
Bagley5020061995
Le Center4220251993
Caledonia 24220252013
Knapp3920251967
Hart Lake3820251967
Brook Park3820251998
Minnetonka3720251969
Oklee3620211969
Floodwood3420251967
Lude3220251978
Lake Bronson3220111978
Greenbush3220251993
Chatfield3119991967
Mahtowa3020231993
Brainerd3020241993
Ashby3020211997
Chatfield 23020252003
Wigwam Bay2920231967
Debs2820251969
Caledonia2820121993
New London2820241994
Nett Lake2820242013
Little Fork2620241969
Nebish2520251982

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.