BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Nevada has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+118%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Nevada: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Nevada is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.09–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Nevada is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.09–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.033.8
20271.90.043.8
20281.90.063.8
20292.00.083.8
20302.00.093.9

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally2520251996
Toiyabe Nf1120241987
Humboldt Nf 2920252021
Humboldt Nf720191993
Ruby Valley620011997
Virgin Creek620181995
Eureka520222009
Gardnerville520121992
Rye Patch419871987
Walker Can420131968
Carson River420022001
Hiko420231968
Fallon420241992
Majors Place320051990
Jarbidge320141997
Calico Spr219741974
Ranchogrande220231991
Comins Lake220162005
Fish Creek220211997
Austin220162008
Ruby Valley 2220242004
Willis220241988
Minerva220221989
Gardnerville 2220252013
Midas120241998

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.