BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 1.8–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 1.8–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.21.98.6
20275.21.98.6
20285.21.88.6
20295.21.88.6
20305.21.88.5

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Song Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills7320252001
Todd5020251995
Brevard4820251968
Cullowhee4120251974
Cherryville3519681966
Hendersonvil3220251996
Oteen2720241976
Marshall2320251990
Cherokee2120252011
Craven Gap1719751969
French Broad River1520252001
Madison1219851966
Jonas Ridge919711968
Lloyd Xroads919921992
Call820251968
Hamlet819991996
Highlands620251994
Copeland620251968
Pinelog620252001
Mooresville420011966
Linville420251976
Siloam420252005
Roseboro420031996
Jamesville420061997
Andrews419981994

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.