BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 1.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 1.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.11.88.5
20265.11.78.5
20275.11.78.5
20285.11.78.5
20295.11.78.5

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Song Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills6720242001
Brevard5020241968
Todd4620231995
Cullowhee4120241974
Hendersonvil4020241996
Cherryville3519681966
Oteen2720241976
French Broad River2420242001
Marshall2220241990
Craven Gap1719751969
Cherokee1620242011
Madison1219851966
Linville1120241976
Jonas Ridge919711968
Call920241968
Lloyd Xroads919921992
Copeland820241968
Hamlet819991996
Highlands720241994
Fontana620241968
Mooresville420011966
Roseboro420031996
Waterville420241994
Jamesville420061997
Andrews419981994

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.