BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Alaska has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-48%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.002.1
20270.910.002.0
20280.890.002.0
20290.860.002.0
20300.840.002.0

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cordova2120241983
Juneau1920251983
Sitka1520241993
Zimovia Strt1420251988
Haines1020251972
Copper River920111993
Sitka (Short)719921984
Petersburg719871987
Craig520251983
Ketchikan520221972
Togiak River519941994
Kanektok Riv519991995
Yakutat520251999
Kalifonsky420251982
Chiniak320251986
Mccarthy Rd2319951995
Ft. Richrdsn319961994
Sourdough320131998
Hyder320091994
Thorne Bay 2320252013
Thorne Bay320121990
Seward219921984
Homer219821977
Zarembo220241993
Cold Bay220002000

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.