BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Alaska has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-47%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.002.1
20260.930.002.1
20270.900.002.0
20280.880.002.0
20290.850.002.0

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Juneau2320241983
Cordova2120241983
Zimovia Strt2020241988
Sitka1520241993
Haines1320241972
Copper River920111993
Hope820241996
Sitka (Short)719921984
Petersburg719871987
Ketchikan520221972
Togiak River519941994
Kanektok Riv519991995
Yakutat520241999
Craig420241983
Mccarthy Rd2319951995
Ft. Richrdsn319961994
Sourdough320131998
Hyder320091994
Thorne Bay320121990
Seward219921984
Homer219821977
Kalifonsky220231982
Zarembo220241993
Cold Bay220002000
Harlequin L.220241995

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.