BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 638% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+638%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 638% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.22.7
20272.01.22.7
20282.01.22.8
20292.01.32.8
20302.11.32.9

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnstown1220251967
Madison820252025
Winside 2820112005
Belvidere720252007
Winside720031981
Hampton720252018
Chambers520252023
Tilden520252019
Maxwell520252018
Wheeler Co520252010
Petersburg420251992
Kenesaw320251996
Kearney320241993
Surprise320251968
Sparta320251986
Midway320251970
Lyons320252019
Murdock320252018
Berwyn 2320252014
Berwyn320102009
Johnson220241992
Sumner220251997
Gretna220181973
Almeria220211980
Paxton220161974

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.