BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 27 (95% range 21–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 27 (95% range 21–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026272232
2027272232
2028272132
2029272132
2030272132

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Grove6919961966
Portersville6519881973
Patton6120241970
Sugar Grove6120251980
Sardis5919741967
Wild Creek5820251988
Ridgway5520181966
Plesant Grov5420241966
Ferris Crnrs5120251966
Waterstreet5120241968
Millville5020251969
Quakertown4919891970
Beaver4820251969
Geeseytown4820251987
Sigel4720251981
Collegeville4720241971
Virginia4620251969
Eldred4520221973
Doe Run4520251969
Little Marsh4420241967
Normalville4419741966
Shelocta4320251968
Harmonsburg4220251966
Jeannette4220231979
Betula4120221973

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.