BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 21–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 21–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025272233
2026272233
2027272232
2028272132
2029272132

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugar Grove8320241980
West Grove6919961966
Portersville6519881973
Schaefferstown 26220242002
Patton6120241970
Doe Run6120241969
Sardis5919741967
Harmonsburg5720231966
Virginia5720241969
Shelocta5620241968
Ridgway5520181966
Plesant Grov5420241966
Parkwood5320241967
Pine Gr Mill5220241967
Waterstreet5120241968
Chatham5020241997
Quakertown4919891970
Mifflintown4720241966
Collegeville4720241971
Geeseytown4620241987
Eldred4520221973
Ferris Crnrs4420241966
Little Marsh4420241967
Normalville4419741966
Leola4420241998

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.