BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Montana has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Montana. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.0–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.31.96.7
20264.31.96.7
20274.32.06.7
20284.32.06.7
20294.32.06.7

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thompson Riv3220241993
St Xavier2620101987
Chestnut2320241968
Cleveland2120241980
Clinton2020241972
Fish Creek2020241995
Libby Dam1620241979
Woodman1620241968
Clyde Park1420242018
Red Rock1320241973
Painted Rock1320221992
Ninemile1120241993
Church Hill1120242017
Elliston1020241968
Twin Bridges919761968
Lima920241994
Noxon920231995
Fort Logan920242018
Philipsburg820242015
Beaverhead720241973
Pryor Mtn.720241995
Highwood620241968
Wise River620241993
Freeman Creek620162015
Hebgen Lake620242017

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.