BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Montana has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Montana. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.21.86.6
20274.21.86.6
20284.21.86.6
20294.21.86.6
20304.21.86.6

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thompson Riv3220241993
St Xavier2620101987
Fish Creek2020241995
Lima1820251994
Chestnut1520251968
Clinton1420251972
Woodman1320251968
Painted Rock1320221992
Hebgen Lake1120252017
Red Rock1020251973
Ninemile1020251993
Twin Bridges919761968
Noxon920231995
Philipsburg820252015
Elliston720251968
Beaverhead620251973
Wise River620251993
Raynesford620252016
Freeman Creek620162015
Church Hill620252017
Libby Dam520251979
Kalispell520251968
Cleveland520251980
Jordan520102000
Cramer Creek520191995

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.