BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Arizona has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+131%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Arizona: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.15–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.15–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.130.69
20260.420.130.70
20270.420.140.70
20280.420.140.71
20290.430.150.71

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock 2520162015
Coolidge419751974
Riviera420242004
Cibola Lake420191994
Florence319881988
Dateland320161998
Cutter320142014
Carr Mtn320241991
Laguna220231968
Cutter 2220182015
Araby220221992
The Gap119701970
Round Rock119721968
Blue119871985
Pomerene120241994
Patagonia120241979
Palo Verde 2120242014
Maine120031997
Skull Valley120152014
Tonto Vill.120192016
Palo Verde120131994
Red Rock120141998
Redington120171994
Hope 2120182016
Kaibito120222003

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.