BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Vermont has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231530
2026231530
2027221530
2028221530
2029221430

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg7019941966
Hardwick4820241966
Stowe4820241988
Shaftsbury4120241966
S Wallingfrd4120221966
East Haven4020241966
St Johnsbury3820241970
Fletcher3820241968
W Rutland3620241966
East Calais3620241966
Landgrove3520241966
Greensboro3320241967
Waterville3319801967
Middlesex3120241968
North Pownal2620241966
Marlboro2520241966
Post Mills2220241966
Bristol2220181995
Grand Isle2020241967
Gaysville1920211966
S Reading1820241966
Northfld Fls1820211980
Stratton1720241966
Newbury 21320232005
Newbury1120041986

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.