BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Vermont has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026231531
2027231531
2028231531
2029231531
2030231531

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg7019941966
Fletcher5620251968
Bristol5220251995
Hardwick4820241966
Stowe4820241988
East Haven4520251966
Gaysville4420251966
Landgrove4220251966
S Wallingfrd4120221966
W Rutland3920251966
Middlesex3620251968
Greensboro3620251967
North Pownal3520251966
Northfld Fls3420251980
East Calais3320251966
Waterville3319801967
St Johnsbury3220251970
Shaftsbury2820251966
Grand Isle2320251967
Marlboro2220251966
Post Mills2120251966
S Reading1820241966
Stratton1320251966
Newbury 21320232005
Newbury1120041986

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.