BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in South Dakota has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+188%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in South Dakota: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 5.2–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 5.2–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.44.88.1
20266.54.98.2
20276.65.08.3
20286.75.18.4
20296.85.28.5

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Song Sparrow in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Britton2520231967
Forbes2320241967
Howard2120241970
Long Draw1920241993
Lennox1720241967
Lane1719991972
Rochford1720181996
Lane 21520142000
Veblen1320231968
Black Fox1320171993
Volga1220241967
Wilmot1120241967
Eagle Butte920152001
Crow Creek820231969
Volunteer820121968
Raymond720211967
Hill City720131996
Turton720241985
Tripp620241967
Lightning Cr619981992
White Lake520111982
Gettysburg520231994
Englewood520211992
Roswell420141967
Custer420241969

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.