BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.74
20260.250.000.74
20270.240.000.73
20280.230.000.72
20290.230.000.71

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Song Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ojo Sarco1120241968
Angel Fire620021992
Mountainair519951993
Gallinas220241992
Nageesi120102003
Cebolla120231992
La Plata120082008
Pecos120111996
Red Rock120222016
Bluewater Lake120052001
Maxwell119971997
Escondida120192019
Dulce120222000
Angel Fire 2120242005
Vallecitos120241994
Cloudcroft119921979

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.