BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Utah has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Utah is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Utah is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.005.5
20271.30.005.4
20281.30.005.4
20291.30.005.3
20301.20.005.3

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch3220231994
Delta3020041990
Ant Flat-Ogden Can2620251994
Woodruff2120252002
Bear River1920251994
Hanna1720241997
Lost Cr. Res1720181995
Hyrum1519791975
E. Bear Lake1320251996
Dixie Nf1120251993
Newcastle1120251997
Logan Canyon1120191997
Goshen1020251968
Castle Dale1020151993
Oak City719731973
Cleveland720011998
Wellington720011998
Uintah Nf619941987
Book Ridge620062003
Promontory520252006
Altonah520251969
Boulder520251968
Notom519941994
Beck 2520251992
Bicknell520251997

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.