BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Missouri has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+150%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Missouri: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+136%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.66.5
20274.11.66.6
20284.21.76.6
20294.21.86.7
20304.31.86.7

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kahoka23820242002
Emden2320242017
Kahoka1719981970
Luray1620252015
House Springs1520252017
Auburn1320252014
Lucerne1220252018
Bolckow1119921967
Madison920241977
Doe Run820252015
Kirksville820251994
Frankford720251987
Stet619951972
Barnard520221999
Handley519671967
Millwood520251999
Deventer420241967
Graydon419681968
Sticklervill420251971
Trenton420251967
Gildehouse419891986
Watson320251991
Danville320251986
Centertown320191974
Rensselaer320251971

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.