BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Missouri has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+172%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Missouri: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.86.6
20264.21.86.6
20274.31.96.7
20284.31.96.7
20294.42.06.8

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kahoka23820242002
Emden2320242017
Kahoka1719981970
Luray1520242015
Bolckow1119921967
Madison920241977
Doe Run920242015
Frankford920241987
Trenton820241967
Rensselaer620241971
Stet619951972
Sticklervill620241971
House Springs620242017
Barnard520221999
Handley519671967
Danville520241986
Millwood520241999
Moselle520242004
Mcfall520241994
Deventer420241967
Graydon419681968
Kirksville420241994
Gildehouse419891986
Centertown320191974
Tarkio319891969

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.