BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Kentucky has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191325
2028191325
2029191325

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil13919971996
Paintsville8219951979
Kehoe7819921966
Goshen4619991966
Hodgenville 24420232008
Pippa Passes4219971988
Eastview4220241967
Phelps3619971979
Merrimac3120241967
Mckee3020241967
Hodgenville3020031967
Sewell Shop2920231966
Keysburg2820241998
Pine Ridge2819781966
Pleasurevill2820241979
Campton2820211979
Levee2719821966
Sunnybrook2620221968
Beattyville2620011966
Million2619861966
Hudson2620241967
Glencoe2620181966
Gesling2619731967
Levee 22620192007
Cumberlnd Gp2520181966

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.