BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.2–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.2–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025189.627
2026189.227
2027188.927
2028178.526
2029178.226

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamburg6220011981
Cohoctah6020242021
St Charles5420191967
S Lyons5419921966
Pickford5320241973
Juniata5320241966
No Bradley4820241970
Holt4420241969
North Branch4419991974
Prattville4120211967
Nashville4020241968
Almena4020151993
Pleasant Valley 23720242004
Riggsville3620191967
Tyre3619961967
Lawrence3520241969
Coopersville3520241979
Chippewa Lk.3420241992
Big Rapids3319901967
Maple Grove3220241967
Drayton Plns3219871973
Ontonagon3120191967
Homer3120241975
Pettysville3119791969
New Buffalo3120141992

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.