BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Michigan has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Song Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.0–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.0–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026189.427
2027189.027
2028188.726
2029178.326
2030178.026

Song Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamburg6220011981
St Charles5420191967
S Lyons5419921966
Juniata5320241966
Pickford4420251973
North Branch4419991974
Cohoctah4320252021
Prattville4120211967
Coopersville4020251979
Almena4020151993
Nashville3820251968
Ola3720251974
Riggsville3620191967
Tyre3619961967
Pleasant Valley 23620252004
Holt3520251969
Lapeer3520252000
Lawrence3420251969
Big Rapids3319901967
Hamburg 23320252004
Drayton Plns3219871973
Mayfield3220252000
Ontonagon3120191967
Maple Grove3120251967
Homer3120241975

Song Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.