BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Virginia has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Virginia is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.5–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Virginia is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.5–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.53.6
20262.61.53.6
20272.61.53.6
20282.61.53.7
20292.61.53.7

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart2120241996
Finchley2020211995
Walkers1720231992
Brandon1620241992
Newville1620241988
Quinby1520241966
Brodnax1520241973
Branchville1520241966
Newsoms1420241967
Waverly1219871967
Surry1120241977
Clinchport919781968
Wylliesburg920191971
Ft Pickett N819951993
Port Royal720191977
Ft Pickett S719951993
White Stone720241966
Ringgold720241976
Moran620241996
Concord520241967
Mannboro520241967
Appomattox520241995
Chincoteag W420241992
Gloucester420241992
Sharps320241967

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.