BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Oklahoma has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+135%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Oklahoma: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.64.07.2
20265.64.17.2
20275.74.17.3
20285.84.27.4
20295.94.37.5

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha5820231994
Goodwater1820211992
Heyburn1720241992
Mt. Herman1720221998
Ouachita Nf1520241991
Hee Mountain1420241999
Holdenville1320241967
Wichita Mts West1220222004
Big Cedar1120241967
Bethel1120241993
Noble1020241967
Wichita Mtns East920222004
Skiatook920191983
Blanco720161967
Keetonville620221993
Beggs520231967
Baron420231967
Wichita Mtns419941994
Colcord420221992
Phillips320051971
Ardmore320071970
Choctaw320211967
Peoria320231967
Barnsdall319771967
Sandbluff319951992

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.