BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Oklahoma has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Oklahoma: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.64.07.2
20275.64.07.2
20285.74.17.3
20295.84.27.4
20305.94.37.5

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha5820231994
Ouachita Nf2420251991
Goodwater1820211992
Mt. Herman1720221998
Heyburn1520251992
Hee Mountain1420241999
Sandbluff1320251992
Mill Creek1220251970
Big Cedar1120241967
Holdenville1120251967
Bethel1020251993
Skiatook920191983
Blanco720161967
Ardmore620251970
Wichita Mtns East620252004
Noble620251967
Keetonville620221993
Beggs520231967
Baron420231967
Wichita Mtns419941994
Colcord420221992
Phillips320251971
Indianola320251967
Choctaw320211967
Peoria320231967

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.