BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in West Virginia has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has collapsed in West Virginia: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in West Virginia is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in West Virginia is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.96
20260.080.000.93
20270.060.000.91
20280.030.000.89
20290.010.000.86

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Summer Tanager in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washburn420221974
Josephs Mill420231993
Smithfield420212021
Breeden320191986
Clear Creek219881988
Arlee219791966
Paradise220211967
Cedarville220221983
Strange Crk220171993
Slate220241980
Greer220031970
Sleepy Creek219711967
Clinton219671967
Henderson220232002
Hix119861970
Pedro120231994
Stollings120161986
Bowden120232023
Hanover120241980
Welch120221980
Pt Pleasant120211973
Hubbardstown120231966
Spencer120211986
Clendenin120061979
Nicut120211986

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.