BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in North Carolina has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.77.8
20265.83.87.8
20275.83.87.8
20285.83.87.9
20295.93.97.9

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Summer Tanager in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed2320241966
California2320131972
Maple Hill1720231995
Jackson1620171995
Bullock1620241997
Hamlet1520241995
Shallotte1419911966
Arcola1420241971
Raeford1420241990
California 21220242014
Biscoe1220171990
Uwharrie Nf1220011993
Spring Hope1220242002
Oakboro1120241969
Jamesville1120241983
South. Pines1019961996
Durham1020241991
Green Swamp1020062002
Cayton1020242010
Kinston920241966
Jordan920241966
Supply920241992
Reelsboro920191997
Roseboro920241996
Pinetops920241999

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexicoohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.