BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in North Carolina has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.73.77.7
20275.83.87.8
20285.83.87.8
20295.83.87.8
20305.93.97.9

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Summer Tanager in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
California2320131972
Bullock2220251997
Speed1720251966
Maple Hill1720231995
Montague1720251990
Jackson1620171995
Jamesville1520251983
Dortches1520251990
Shallotte1419911966
Oakboro1420251969
California 21320252014
Raeford1320251990
Washington1320252001
Spring Hope1320252002
Hamlet1220251995
Durham1220251991
Uwharrie Nf1220011993
South. Pines1019961996
Biscoe1020251990
Osmond1020252001
Lake Surf1020251998
Bethel1020252002
Green Swamp1020062002
Cayton1020242010
Kinston920241966

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexicoohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.