BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Missouri has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+123%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Missouri: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.8–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.8–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.24.67.8
20276.24.67.8
20286.34.77.9
20296.44.88.0
20306.44.88.0

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lincoln2520252013
Syracuse1720241969
Williamsvill1720251994
Clementine 21720072005
Ironton1619801972
Eugene1620252013
Centertown1420251974
Clementine1320021974
Filley1320251975
Osage Beach1320251998
Bennett1220251994
Pineville1120251974
Hilda1120251994
Union1119991990
Akers1020251967
Hayden1020251975
Rueter 21020252023
Ohio920251972
Kearney920251995
Barks820251994
Bland820251995
Gerald820252013
Crane720251994
Whitewater720251996
Mincy720252013

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.