BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Arkansas has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Arkansas: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 7.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 7.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.66.710
20278.76.811
20288.76.911
20298.87.011
20308.97.011

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yellville1920252010
Magazine Mtn1820251993
Zion1520251967
Crowley'S Ridge1520252011
Rudy1420252011
Nance1420251992
Lockesburg1320192010
Ozark Nf1320251991
Waldron1220251967
Blakely1119991968
Farwell1120182010
Russell1120212010
Rupert1020241967
Stark1020251967
Sims1020252010
Four Lakes1020011994
Poyen920071967
Compton920221967
Hatfield 2820252017
Coal Hill720231968
Ravenden Springs720152010
Stephens720252010
Princeton 2720222022
Fulton620251967
Havana620212010

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.