BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Arkansas has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Arkansas: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.9 (95% range 7.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.9 (95% range 7.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.66.710
20268.76.811
20278.86.911
20288.87.011
20298.97.111

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge2820242011
Yellville1920222010
Waldron1620241967
Stark1620241967
Ozark Nf1520241991
Magazine Mtn1520211993
Sims1320242010
Lockesburg1320192010
Fulton1220241967
Rudy1220242011
Nance1220241992
Blakely1119991968
Farwell1120182010
Russell1120212010
Hatfield 21120242017
Poyen 21120242008
Rupert1020241967
Four Lakes1020011994
Poyen920071967
Zion920241967
Compton920221967
Stephens920242010
Boston Mtn.920241994
Dry Fork 2920242024
Old Milo820241967

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.