BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Florida has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Florida. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 1.7–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 1.7–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.84.9
20263.31.74.9
20273.31.74.9
20283.31.74.9
20293.31.74.9

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale3720111988
Citrus2620242010
Ocala2220241987
New Hope1420112009
Croom1320241987
Blackwater1220241987
Miccosukee1120241966
Miller Xrds1120191987
Island Grove1120241992
Seminole Hills 21120222002
Pinetta920241987
Nobleton920241987
St Vincent I920241995
Micanopy819911966
Blountstown720241966
Telogia719851968
Port St Joe720141967
Goethe720232010
Eglin A.F.B.720111995
Seminole Hls620001967
Nixon619851985
Chassahowitz620241996
Steinhatchee520231966
Romeo520241966
Hildreth520091987

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.