BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Florida has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Florida. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.31.74.9
20273.31.74.9
20283.31.74.8
20293.21.74.8
20303.21.64.8

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale3720111988
Ocala2620251987
Citrus2120252010
Blackwater1920251987
New Hope1420112009
Island Grove1320251992
Miller Xrds1120191987
Seminole Hills 21120222002
Croom1120251987
Alligator Pt1020251987
St Vincent I1020251995
Miccosukee920251966
Micanopy819911966
Telogia719851968
Port St Joe720141967
Mt. Olive720252002
Eglin A.F.B.720111995
Seminole Hls620001967
Ft Mccoy620251987
Nixon619851985
Chassahowitz620251996
Hildreth520091987
Bristol520231986
Hildreth 2520252011
Doctor Inlet420001967

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.