BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Tennessee has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tennessee is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tennessee is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.5–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.46.4
20274.93.46.4
20284.93.46.4
20294.93.56.4
20305.03.56.4

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy2520251966
Lewis Forest2020251966
Trace Collinwood1920182015
Trace Lewis1820172013
Silerton1520241967
Mansfield1420251966
Collinwood1420251966
Indian Mound 21320232004
Whiteville1120251966
Sweetlips1120231966
Brownsville920251966
Indian Mound919981966
Wrigley920221966
Moscow820251967
Tibbs820251969
Campbellsville820171966
Tullahoma820151967
Humboldt720251969
Signal Mtn620251979
Silver Pt520241966
Red Bank519781966
Harbuck520232002
Pond Creek420251966
Petersburg420131966
Peytonsville420251966

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.