BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Tennessee has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tennessee is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Tennessee is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.73.36.2
20264.83.36.2
20274.83.46.2
20284.83.46.2
20294.83.46.2

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collinwood2520241966
Big Sandy2020241966
Trace Collinwood1920182015
Trace Lewis1820172013
Mansfield1720241966
Silerton1520241967
Indian Mound 21320232004
Whiteville1220241966
Sweetlips1120231966
Brownsville1020241966
Humboldt1020241969
Lewis Forest1020241966
Indian Mound919981966
Wrigley920221966
Moscow820241967
Campbellsville820171966
Tullahoma820151967
Pond Creek720241966
Tibbs620241969
Silver Pt520241966
Red Bank519781966
Harbuck520232002
Signal Mtn420241979
Petersburg420131966
Bradyville420211966

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.