BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Texas has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Texas: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 2.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 2.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.62.03.1
20272.62.03.2
20282.62.03.2
20292.62.03.2
20302.62.03.2

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyrna 22320252011
Weches2120251995
Diboll2020251968
Harper1820251969
Allen Creek1820251994
Livingston1620251969
Alexander St1620251995
Crossroads1520251967
Leakey1520251994
Lydia1420251967
Liberty Hill1420251968
Montell1320251995
Big Sandy Bith1320242015
San Saba1220251973
Quitman Cyn.1220091999
Utopia1120251969
Morton1120251970
Powell Park1120211995
Mt. Selman1120251998
Chandler1020041968
Arenosa Crk920251971
Adamsville920251972
Pidcoke 2920252018
Easton920131994
Smyrna920101995

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.