BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Texas has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Texas: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Texas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 2.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Texas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 2.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.93.1
20262.51.93.1
20272.52.03.1
20282.52.03.1
20292.62.03.1

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utopia1920241969
Weches1920241995
San Saba1620241973
Allen Creek1620241994
Boerne1520241967
Leakey1520241994
Alexander St1520241995
Bon Wier1520241996
Crossroads1420241967
Powell Park 21420242022
Shields 21420232006
Morton1320241970
Athens1320241968
Dripping Spg1320241985
Montell1320241995
Prairie Mtn.1320241994
Big Sandy Bith1320242015
Town Bluff1220241967
Harper1220241969
Quitman Cyn.1220091999
Cayuga1120242005
Powell Park1120211995
Livingston1020241969
Valley Spgs1020241967
Massey Lake1020241970

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.