BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in New Mexico has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+166%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in New Mexico: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.08–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.08–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.070.36
20270.220.070.36
20280.220.080.37
20290.220.080.37
20300.230.080.37

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Summer Tanager in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock420251992
Emory Pass420251998
Mesilla420001995
Laborcita220191992
Laborcita 2220252022
Queen220192000
Variadero220182000
Magdalena120062006
Reserve120232007
La Cienega120141992
Valencia119721970
Cooley Lake120252002
Sabinoso120211989
Logan119871987
Escondida120181998
Deming119691969
Vallecitos120182018
Lake Valley120232006

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.